Thursday, March 08, 2007


First, some perspective from recent history.

June 2000:
The forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia for the semi-annual Livingston Survey are projecting much faster economic growth in 2000 than they did six months ago... [F]orecasters now think real GDP will grow 4.9 percent this year, compared with 3.4 percent in the forecast made six months earlier. The forecasters think real output growth in 2001 will slow to 3.0 percent, the same rate they projected six months ago.
December 2000:
Forecasters... who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year for the Livingston Survey, are projecting that the economy’s output, which they forecast to have grown 5.1 percent in 2000 (based on the growth rate of the average annual level of real GDP), will slow down to just 3.1 percent growth in 2001 and 3.4 percent in 2002. However, the [forecast] growth rates in both 2000 and 2001 are a bit higher than they were in the last survey, taken six months ago in June 2000.
Actual real GDP growth over the past decade:

Now we're ready for this story from Bloomberg today:
Growth in U.S. to Firm Through 2007, Economists Say

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will strengthen during the year, overcoming declines in housing, business investment and stock markets, a survey of economists showed.

The world's largest economy may expand at a 2.4 percent annual rate this quarter, and accelerate to 3 percent by year's end, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from March 1 to March 7. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the last three months of 2006.
A little perspective is always a good thing. As are grains of salt.

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