Friday, September 02, 2011

Europe's Banking System: The Transatlantic Cash Flow

And now, the flip side of the story presented yesterday, in which ECB data seems to indicate that monetary financial institutions (MFIs) in Europe have been moving their deposits out of European banks. Where is that money going?

It looks like much of it is being placed with US banks instead. The following chart shows the total deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks in the US. (All data is from the Federal Reserve Board, through August 17, 2011.)


Clearly, something is going on -- the recent rise in deposits with US banks has been dramatic, with an above-trend increase in deposits of approximately $500 billion over the past 6 months.

Who is responsible for this sudden inflow of deposits into the US banking system? The answer is non-US banks, as illustrated in the following picture, which shows the cash assets of domestically chartered banks alongside the cash assets of foreign-owned banks in the US.


The cash assets (i.e. bank deposits) that foreign banks are keeping in the US banking system has risen sharply over the past 6 months -- not coincidentally, by about $500 billion. Meanwhile, domestic US banks have started showing some similar tendency toward accumulating cash, but only to the tune of approximately $150 billion, and only over the past 2 months.

Recall from yesterday's post that MFIs in Europe have drained their bank accounts at European banks by about €700 billion over the past year and half, which at current exchange rates is approximately $1 trillion. It seems that much of that money has recently found its way into the bank accounts that European MFIs keep in US banks. And conversely, it seems likely that the large inflow of cash deposits held at US banks this year is largely from European banks.

Putting it all together yields a compelling story: European banks are shifting their cash assets out of European banks and putting much of them into US banks. (An interesting question is what European MFIs have done with the remaining money they've withdrawn from the European banking system... but that's a story for another day.) This has happened at a significant rate, with a net transatlantic flow from European to US banks that probably totals close to half a trillion dollars in just six months.

If you're wondering exactly who has been the first to lose confidence in the European banking system, look no further. It seems that at the forefront is the European banking system itself.

93 comments:

  1. Given this data, I find it exceptionally interesting that the U.S. dollar has not appreciated more relative to the euro.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mitch - I look at it the other way around.  Given the yield differential between European and US interest-bearing assets, many people have been wondering why the euro hasn't appreciated more against the dollar.  This may be part of the explanation why.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Shamir Karkal10:52 PM

    Great analysis Kash. I'll bet a good chunk of the remaining outflow has gone into bunds and T-bills, driving the historically low rates. Big question is which banks are the worst affected? Anecdotally it seems to be Spanish and the Italian banks, but I'll bet Dexia, KBC, BNP, and SocGen are in there too.

    Also, you should tweet these blogs when you post them.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The biggest outflows through July 2011 were from the UK and Germany, according to the ECB data referenced in the other post. Surprisingly little fall in deposits in French banks through the end of July. But August was, anecdotally at least, a bad month for the French banks - the ECB data will be available for August soon to tell us if the anecdotes were right.

    As for where the remaining outflow went -- I'm sure you're right that some of it has gone into bonds.  The other important destination, I think, is probably Switzerland...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Rebecca3:39 PM

    @ Kash:

    "Clearly, something is going on -- the recent rise in deposits with US banks has been dramatic, with an above-trend increase in deposits of approximately $500 billion over the past 6 months. "

    Yes, QE2 - that's what has increased the cash holdings of these banks, since the cash assets component of the balance sheet includes reserve holdings with the Fed.
     I was VERY interested in your bank data assessment. However, in looking at the data myself, I see that your analysis is not right.

    MFI deposits (in your previous post) jan 2010 to july 2011 are indeed -461 billion euro. But over the last six months, i.e., jan 2011 to july 2011 which is consistent with this analysis here, MFI deposits with other MFI's INCREASED by 26.265 billion euro.

    The 6 month increase in foreign-related banks in the US (i.e., US branches of Deutsche Bank or Santander, for example) is purely a consequence of the Fed's QE, not some ulterior motive to move assets out of europe. Perhaps US branches are moving assets back home. The 'net due to related foreign offices', line 40 of H.8. page 3), is +333.2 billion - this means that domestic institutions essentially 'owe' their foreign branches, since net holdings are positive.

    Now answering why the Fed's QE has increased the foreign-related bank cash asset base more so than the domestic institution cash asset base is interesting. I cannot answer that at this time.

    Rebecca

    ReplyDelete
  6. Joel Rosch5:29 PM

    Another reason not to worry about inflation, but to worry about a European meltdown.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Rebecca7:12 PM

    More on my previous comment.

    "<span>Perhaps US branches are moving assets back home."</span>

    In fact, it looks like foreign branches here in the US (Deutsche Bank branches located in the US) are transferring assets back to their foreign branches, rather than the other way around.

    See line 40 on release H.8, page 19, "Assets and Liabilities of Foreign-Related Institutions in the United States". If this number is negative, it's a negative liability or an effective asset or claim on its branches located in the home country. On the other hand, a positive number is a net liability, or the US branch owes the foreign branch.

    This number (line 40) turned positive in June 2011, having risen by roughly 428 billion since January 2011. It looks to me like capital is being transferred back to the foreign branches from the US branches.

    Rebecca

    ReplyDelete
  8. John Cunningham6:23 AM

    does this suggest we are going to see a devaluing of the Euro

    and if so where is the pound going   worrying!!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. John Cunningham8:23 AM

    I think there are a few who would not weep over the demise of the Euro (me inc)

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  10. Ruchika10:42 AM

    There are some fundamental changes happening.. with emerging markets turning into stable markets.. until that transition is complete there could be volatility. For best investment options in India: http://www.myfamilyinvestment.com

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    There are some fundamental changes happening.. Gold is on the rise and expected to rise for another few months till this transition is over. For Best Gold investment in US: http://theinvestmentworld.com/2011/06/best-gold-etf-in-us/

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  12. Tri Ton4:04 AM

    I think finally EU policy makers and investors have to go back to the earth by using their money to invest on their own infrastructure instead of giving it to somewhere safe haeven place.  A fleeing of money out of the continent says nothing but a run away from problem without facing it.

    For gold I don't think any problem with the world economy because I made a calculation and studied on gold production (detail here: http://huetri.com/2011/09/01/dont-panic-on-gold/) and I don't see any systematic risk from gold side. 

    USD is getting weakening and it just made a damn big move while I type this! Thank god that I'm longing the pair :))!

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  13. Anonymous10:33 AM

    In general European infrastructure is much better and that Keynesian policy makes less long run sense.

    ReplyDelete
  14. newcombat5:46 PM

    how big a chunk of this transatlantic transfer is the result of dollar-loans by US banks (and, thru them, Fed QE2 credits) getting called back as the euro (sov and bank) collateral decayed?

    stories beginning august and as recently as last week reported US money-market funds calling back such loans (cashing out repurchase agmts perhaps) and demanding gold as collateral instead.

    bernanke of course admitted when questioned on the Hill ca june that a good deal of QE2 credit went to euro banks "because they needed it."  

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