Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Estimating the Cost of the Eurozone Crisis

I tend to think about it like this. The eurozone crisis imposes costs on the periphery countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain) through the austerity and resulting recessions they have been forced to impose upon themselves. And the crisis imposes costs on the core countries (France, Germany, Benelux, Austria, Finland) through the rescue packages that they have been forced to cobble together.

I've argued before that I think that since the benefits of the euro have been enjoyed by all memebers of the eurozone (EZ), the costs of the crisis should also be shared among the members of the EZ. To what degree has that happened? Let's see if we can come up with some sort of rough estimate.

To figure the costs to the periphery countries, I measure the GDP shortfall between those countries and the rest of the EZ during the years 2010-12 using data from Eurostat. (But note that the 2012 GDP growth rate is a forecast, and as such is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.) So for example, over those three years Greece will have had approximately €42 billion less income than it would have had without the crisis, i.e. if it had enjoyed the same economic growth as the EZ core. Dividing this by the Greek population yields a cost of about €3,700 per person, or about 18% of annual income.

To estimate the costs to the core EZ countries, I add up the various rescue packages agreed to so far, including the most recent (July 2011) €110 billion plan for Greece. (Though it's worth noting that the July 2011 plan has not actually been approved by all EZ member countries, and final details are yet to be worked out, so I'm not sure that it's quite a done deal.) Most of this assistance is in the form of loans; after all, the idea was that these rescue packages were primarily supposed to just see the periphery countries through a liquidity crisis. As such, much of this assistance is due to be repaid. But to be as generous as possible to the EZ core countries in this reckoning, let's assume that such repayments never amount to more than 50% of the package totals.

The following table summarizes these very rough estimates of the burden that the crisis has imposed on the members of the EZ so far.


Assuming that the July 2011 agreement is indeed approved and the money is actually handed over to Greece, then the crisis will have cost about €740 per capita in the EZ core, or about 2.5% of annual income in 2010. For the periphery countries, the cost of the crisis ranges between about €1,300 and €3,700, depending on the country, or between 6% and 18% of one year of average income.

If you believe that solving the EZ crisis is a matter of shared responsibility -- and since the crisis was largely the result of forces beyond the control of the EZ periphery, that seems a reasonable conclusion -- then then these figures are badly askew. At the very least, they suggest that any additional costs imposed by this crisis should henceforward be paid for primarily by the EZ core. The periphery has already paid its dues, and then some.

164 comments:

  1. Serious Sam10:30 AM

    <span>"To figure the costs to the periphery countries, I measure the GDP shortfall between those countries and the rest of the EZ during the years 2010-12 using data from Eurostat"  
     
    I think it is misleading to assess only the costs. The windfall savings (between mid 2001 and autumn 2008 there were de facto euro-bonds which allowed especially the GIPSIs to borrow much cheaper than before (or after))  and profits (this allowed the GIPSIs to achieve higher GDP increases) during the years before the crisis started must be compared to the development sin the core as well, otherwise the picture is distorted.</span>

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dompac10:44 PM

    According to IMF figures: German claims on the Eurosystem as of 1Q 2011, were 323 Billion Euros. Greece owes as of 1Q 2011, 76 Billion Euros. The total PIGS deficit amounts to -311 Billion Euros. Using fiscal austerity according to 2010 IMF study would a debt reduction of 1% for every 1% growth in GDP. . .but because of the unique nature of the EZ intergregation and the lack of currency adjustment that ratio could be diminished to .5% for every 1% GDP growth. . .

    ReplyDelete
  3. tsompe1:34 PM

    ECB has given loans to PIIGS banks and bought huge amounts of their government bonds which are also backed by EZ core taxpayers. Also what Serious Sam already said about the borrowing costs.

    Without these those calculations are clearly wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Trade Certificates are the solution to the European Debt Crisis.  See:
    http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2011/10/trade-certificates-solution-to-european.html
    The Greeks, and the others, have to sell goods, services, or assets, to balance acocounts.  Tthe only way they can establish the necessary trade surplus is with Trade Certificates, as described in the article. Austerity destroys productive assets along with consuming elements.  Austerity aggravates the problem.

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  5. Anonymous12:05 PM

    <span>Laissez ici votre commentaire en respectant les lois. Tout commentaire jugé inapproprié (agressif, raciste, diffamatoire, publicitaire, grossier, hors sujet…) sera supprimé</span>

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  6. David R7:38 AM

    I don't think this is a fair analysis because you're not comparing like with like. Specifically, you're comparing the cost to the periphery countries now with the cost to the core countries at some point in the future when the loans have been partially repaid. Your stats assume that the core countries have invested only 50% of the money required by the rescue packages, on the grounds that, at some time in the future, they will get at least 50% back. However, they have actually invested 100% -- or they will have done once the measures are approved by parliaments. Until that money is repaid, it's not available to be spent by the core countries, which must be factored into government spending decisions.  The current cost to the core countries is essentially 100% of the loan amount, not 50%.

    You cannot account the loans as being 50% repaid until they have actually been repaid. If you remove this 50% 'fiddle factor' from your analysis, the results change dramatically.  The current per-capita cost looks like this: Ireland 3793, Greece 3696, Eurozone core 1480, Portugal 1451, Spain 1337. When expressed as a proportion of 2010 per-capita GDP, the Eurozone core is still the lowest but its contribution of 5.0% is broadly comparable with Spain's 5.8%.  Quite a different picture...

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  7. Talleyrand2:42 AM

    Hello,

    Like many people in economics, you are forgetting the entire periphery: the political the ideological and the social. Sure, you can tweak figures one way or another, share burdens, etc..., but tell that to someone in France scraping by on 1000 euros a month scratched together from a bad job with one of those neoliberally trained bosses whose idea of leadership is to use a hammer all the time?

    Also: where are all the "Lessons Learned" the business wizzes have discussed, or the "innovations", the "SMART and SWOT" analysis, the "Six Sigma" and the rest of the jargon?

     The deeper problem is that we have been swamped with BS for the past 30 years and have de-industrialized our economies in the name of one big globasm. Look at Germany and Switzerland.... two economies that are faring fairly well...- What is their secret? manufacturing and SME. In the former, the SME are under constant attack from the left AND the right, mind you, yet they persist. The multis, forget them: They are like governments on their own, always seeking power and the old, about as innovative as a pile of coal.

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    Get real please.

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